Is Everyone Leaving Massachusetts? Who's Leaving, Who's Moving In, and Should You Move to Greater Boston?

A friend posts a photo of a moving truck on I-93 heading north. A neighbor lists their Arlington colonial and buys in southern New Hampshire. A headline says Massachusetts is losing people. If you are thinking about moving to the Boston area, or you live here and wonder whether it is time to go, it is fair to ask what is really happening.

The short answer: some people are leaving, more are arriving than the headlines suggest, and the reasons people go are more about housing than anything else. Understanding that picture can help you make a better decision, whether you are buying, selling, staying put, or investing.

Since 2014, the Santana Team has helped more than 1,600 clients buy, sell, and rent across Greater Boston, from Cambridge and Somerville to Arlington and Medford. Here is how we think about the question.

Watch: Hudson Santana on Why People Are Leaving Massachusetts

Hudson leads the Santana Team and also builds small condo projects of two to 10 units around Greater Boston, so he sees the market from both sides: what homes sell for, and what it takes to create them. In this video, he digs into the numbers behind the headlines.

Is Massachusetts Actually Losing People?

Not overall. U.S. Census Bureau estimates show Massachusetts grew by 15,524 people between July 2024 and July 2025, to about 7.15 million residents. That is growth of just 0.2%, but it is growth.

The "everyone is leaving" story comes from one real number. In that same year, about 33,000 more people moved from Massachusetts to other states than moved here from other states. That is called net domestic migration, and Massachusetts had the sixth-highest rate of resident loss to other states in the country.

At the same time, the state gained about 40,000 people from other countries. Put together, migration added roughly 6,900 residents, the smallest yearly increase since the pandemic.

If you see different figures online, that is usually because the Census Bureau revises its estimates as better data comes in. The UMass Donahue Institute, which tracks population for the state, shows the 2024 domestic loss was revised upward from earlier reports.

What this means for you: demand here is not disappearing. It is shifting. Newcomers arriving for jobs, research, and school still need places to live, which helps explain why prices have not dropped the way a "mass exodus" headline would suggest.

Where Are People Going, and Is It About Taxes?

For Boston-area movers, the latest migration reports (July 2025 through June 2026) keep pointing to the same three states: New Hampshire, New York, and Rhode Island. Florida shows up too, especially among baby boomers.

Taxes usually come up next, and there are two credible ways to read the data.

The case that taxes are driving people out

The Pioneer Institute, a Boston think tank, analyzed IRS data and found Massachusetts had a net loss of $4.18 billion in taxable income to other states in 2023, with about $2.75 billion of that going to Florida and New Hampshire. Pioneer points to the state's 4% surtax on income over $1 million as one factor.

The case that the picture is more balanced

The Mass Budget and Policy Center reads the movement differently. By its count, for every five households that left, four moved in from other states. For every three Massachusetts households that moved to Florida, two Florida households moved here. And about nine out of 10 households leaving earned under $200,000, which suggests most movers are not leaving over a millionaire's tax.

Both points can be true at once. Some high earners do leave, and that matters for state revenue. But for most households, the bigger pressure is the cost of housing.

In the video, Hudson notes that when clients talk about leaving, taxes rarely come up first. Housing does: needing more space, a shorter commute, or room for their household to grow.

Why Housing Costs Push People Out

According to The Warren Group, the median single-family price in Greater Boston was $850,000 in June 2026, roughly flat from a year earlier. With Freddie Mac's 30-year fixed rate at 6.76% on September 10, a buyer putting 25% down on that home would pay about $4,400 a month in principal and interest, before property taxes and insurance.

The reason prices stay high is simple: there are not enough homes. From a builder's point of view, Hudson describes how small lots, height limits, and long approval timelines have made it hard to add housing here for decades. Limited supply plus steady demand keeps values firm. That is tough for first-time buyers, but it is also why long-term owners in this region have done well.

The age group most likely to go is telling. GBH has reported that people ages 25 to 34 are leaving at a disproportionate rate. That is often the stage when renters start looking to buy and find the numbers hard to make work.

What Is Changing on the Supply Side

This is the part of the story that gets the least attention, and it may matter most over the next decade.

Cambridge rewrote its zoning

In February 2025, Cambridge eliminated its single-family and two-family zoning districts. Buildings up to four stories are now allowed by right across most of the city, and up to six stories on lots over 5,000 square feet when affordable units are included. The Boston Globe has reported about 400 new homes permitted so far this year. The change has drawn pushback, and the city has proposed adjustments, so the details may keep evolving.

ADUs are now allowed by right across most of the state

Since February 2025, Massachusetts has allowed one accessory dwelling unit (ADU) by right on most single-family lots, up to 900 square feet (or half the size of the main home, if smaller). More than 1,200 were approved in the first year, and Somerville and Medford were both in the top 10. Boston runs its own ADU program.

For a homeowner, an ADU can mean space for an aging parent, a rental unit that helps with the mortgage, or a way to stay in a neighborhood you love. Rules on setbacks, height, and short-term rentals still vary by city and town, so it is worth checking locally before you plan around one.

Jobs and the Market Right Now

The job market has cooled. The Labor Department reported Massachusetts unemployment at 4.4% in July 2026, compared with 4.1% nationally, and the Cambridge-Newton-Framingham area lost jobs from June to July. GBH has reported on how federal funding cuts are affecting higher education and life sciences, two industries that have long powered this region.

Still, healthcare and education added jobs in July. The hospitals and universities that anchor Greater Boston are not going anywhere.

For buyers, a slower market has an upside. Redfin shows Somerville's median sale price was just over $1 million in July, about 6% lower than a year earlier. Monthly numbers in a smaller city can swing a lot, so one month is not a trend, but it lines up with what we see on the ground: buyers have more room to negotiate than they did two or three years ago. In Boston, by contrast, Redfin shows prices up about 2.4% over the last three months compared with a year earlier. Conditions really do vary by neighborhood.

What This Means for You

If you are thinking about moving here

Start with where your work and daily life will be, then look at neighborhoods that fit. Picture a Saturday in Davis Square in Somerville: coffee, the farmers market, and a Red Line ride to Harvard Square without touching your car. In Arlington, the Minuteman Bikeway runs right through town. In Medford, the Green Line Extension now connects you to downtown. Each tradeoff (space, transit, price) looks different town by town.

If you own here and are wondering whether to leave

Before you sell, it helps to price out both paths. What would it cost to buy what you need elsewhere, and what would it cost to stay? For some owners, adding an ADU, renting part of a multi-family, or moving a few towns over solves the space problem without leaving the region. For others, a move really is the right call, and that is okay.

If you are an investor

Greater Boston tends to reward people who think in 10 to 20 year terms. Supply has been tight for decades, and the new zoning and ADU rules create openings for owners who understand what a lot allows. That is where Hudson's builder background helps: looking at a property for what it could become, not only what it is today.

Who Greater Boston Works For, and Who May Be Happier Elsewhere

The area tends to fit people whose careers are anchored here, especially in medicine, tech, and academia. It fits people who would rather walk to coffee than drive to it, and who value history and character: brownstones in the Back Bay, brick sidewalks on Beacon Hill, tree-lined streets in Belmont and Wellesley.

It may be a harder fit if the lowest possible monthly payment is your top goal, since you will likely get more house per dollar elsewhere. And if you need a big yard, a short commute, and a modest budget all at once, that combination is genuinely hard to find here. That is part of why some people choose southern New Hampshire.

As Hudson puts it in the video, the people leaving are not wrong, and neither are the people who keep choosing this place. The difference usually comes down to planning, knowing the market, and knowing where to look.

Figures are from the U.S. Census Bureau, UMass Donahue Institute, Pioneer Institute, Mass Budget and Policy Center, The Warren Group, Freddie Mac, the U.S. Labor Department, Redfin, GBH, and The Boston Globe, as cited in Hudson Santana's video and noted above. Market conditions, mortgage rates, tax rules, and local zoning can change over time, so confirm current information before making a decision. This article is not legal, tax, or financial advice.